How Covid-19 will impact retail

Covid-19 has had a massive impact on all industries but the Grocery Industry has definitely been at the sharp end with a rapid shift in consumer habits and a responsibility to interpret the government guidelines implementing social distancing and queueing systems. From the early days of stock being stripped from the shelves to now with organised queueing and restricted purchasing in order to ensure supply for all it has been quite a journey in just a few weeks. There have been winners and losers but the way the whole industry and supply chain have coped I believe is truly impressive. Larger supermarkets have lost 1% of market share to local convenience stores, neighbourhood independent retailers and rural farm shops. This is a major change and providing a boom to many of the smaller retailers financially, but it has been a huge effort on their part to keep shelves stocked and their staff and customers safe. Over 60% of convenience stores have seen a big uplift in sales but the 26% of convenience stores in city centres or on industrial parks have seen a complete loss in trade. Online grocery ordering is up by 7% on this time last year with 16% of consumers buying groceries online since lockdown. 62% of convenience stores have implemented a home delivery service during lockdown and now the sector completes 600,000 weekly deliveries. I find this statistic astounding, for so many businesses to change their business model and to introduce the infrastructure and process for home deliveries in a matter of days is extraordinary and very inspiring. Consumers, all of us, have in the main followed the guidelines laid down by the government. We stayed home, we stopped using our cars for unnecessary journeys and we have put on our trainers or got on our bikes and explored our local neighbourhoods. This has led to people finding what is available locally and discovering that a good quality and great value weekly shop can be done without going to a large supermarket and coping with long queues of people. Store visits are down by 24% but when we shop we are spending 45% more per visit. Consumers are back to a weekly shop routine rather than popping to the supermarket every few days and picking up a few meals at a time. With restaurants closed and children not having school dinners we have all had to buy more groceries than usual, I know I have found it hard at times to keep enough food in for my two growing boys. In 2018 there was a survey that showed 55% of consumers would prefer to buy local. Now they have had the time to find out exactly what is available locally and to start getting to know the retailers, I really am hopeful that this trend will continue and sustain. The online shopping trend I can only see continuing and growing. Once someone has placed a few orders online and got over the initial learning curve of how to order groceries online it can quickly become a habit. It really is simple and convenient and there is a large range of retailers from your standard cupboard staples to organic vegetables and wholefoods. Simple advice to shoppers on staying safe: When going shopping wear gloves and a mask if that makes you feel more at ease. Take alcohol gel and tissues so you can wipe over the trolley or basket handles. Sanitise your hands before and after shopping. Make a list and only pick up from the shelves items you intend to purchase, no browsing. Most importantly follow the direction of the staff; it is a very sad fact that despite all the community spirit that this out break has encouraged, 40% of convenience stores have noted an increase in violence and verbal abuse during lockdown. The future of the grocery industry is forever changed. What the “New Normal” will bring only time will tell. What we can be sure of is that everyone will continue to need groceries and with the increase in cooking and shopping locally I hope the future is bright for many of the retailers that have shown ingenuity, resilience and bravery at this utterly extraordinary time in all our lives.